Award details

Scaling up from individual to population behaviour in stochastic spatially-extended systems

Reference	MMI09044
Principal Investigator / Supervisor	Professor Christopher Gilligan
Co-Investigators / Co-Supervisors	Professor Adam Kleczkowski
Institution	University of Cambridge
Department	Plant Sciences
Funding type	Research
Value (£)	133,047
Status	Completed
Type	Research Grant
Start date	01/02/1998
End date	01/02/2001
Duration	36 months

Abstract

Using a combination of mathematical theory, empirical data and experimental investigation the project is designed to develop and test a protocol for scaling-up from individual to population behaviour in order to predict the mean and variance of disease in a population of interacting plants or animals in a spatially extended system. The work will focus on analysis and testing of models for botanical and animal epidemics but the methods have a broad applicability to a range of biological and biotechnological systems. Using a stochastic formulation of an SEIR model with primary and secondary sources of infection and free- living inoculum, we propose to analyse the evolution of probability distributions for selected disease states (susceptible, exposed, infected and removed or dead individuals), using a combination of analytical and normal approximation methods. Particular attention will be given to the effects of interruption of transient behaviour on the variability within and between epidemics and to the interpretation and analysis of local spatial autocorrelations caused by restricted movement of pathogens. The project will use simulations of the full stochastic spatio-temporal system, together with experimental data, to analyse and compare a range of spatially implicit (mean-field) approximations of the full system. Particular attention will be given to the analysis and testing of alternative contact functions for the transmission of disease, to moment closure and to the use of deterministic pairwise approximations. The consequences for maximum-likelihood estimation and of parameter design will be addressed.

Summary

unavailable

Committee	Closed Committee - Engineering & Biological Systems (EBS)
Research Topics	X – not assigned to a current Research Topic
Research Priority	X – Research Priority information not available
Research Initiative	Mathematical Modelling Initiative (MMI) [1997]
Funding Scheme	X – not Funded via a specific Funding Scheme

I accept the terms and conditions of use (opens in new window)

export PDF file

back to list new search