Award details

Inferential tools to analyse the within-herd infection dynamics of animal pathogens

Reference	MAF12261
Principal Investigator / Supervisor	Professor Gavin Gibson
Co-Investigators / Co-Supervisors	Dr Iain McKendrick, Professor Mark Woolhouse
Institution	Heriot-Watt University
Department	S of Mathematical and Computer Sciences
Funding type	Research
Value (£)	110,700
Status	Completed
Type	Research Grant
Start date	15/05/2000
End date	15/02/2004
Duration	45 months

Abstract

The project will apply stochastic models to analyse data from longitudinal field studies of several animal pathogens. Compartmental models for the host population will be developed, incorporating both primary and secondary infection and studied by stochastic simulation, approximation techniques & analysis of special cases. The main focus will be on development of techniques for statistical inference for these models. Parameter estimation will be carried out within a Bayesian framework, using Markov chain methods to handle missing data. Comparison of competing models will be by likelihood techniques and posterior predictive checks. The work will shed light on such key questions as the relative importance of primary and secondary infection, presence of protective immunity and whether persistence of a pathogen is a property of within-herd or meta-population dynamics.

Summary

unavailable

Committee	Closed Committee - Agri-food (AF)
Research Topics	X – not assigned to a current Research Topic
Research Priority	X – Research Priority information not available
Research Initiative	Mathematics & Modelling of Agriculture & Food Sys (MAF) [1999]
Funding Scheme	X – not Funded via a specific Funding Scheme

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