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The spatial analysis of model error

Reference	BBS/E/C/00004727
Principal Investigator / Supervisor	Professor Richard Lark
Co-Investigators / Co-Supervisors
Institution	Rothamsted Research
Department	Rothamsted Research Department
Funding type	Research
Value (£)	40,487
Status	Completed
Type	Institute Project
Start date	01/11/2004
End date	31/01/2007
Duration	27 months

Abstract

Methods for validating biological models have not addressed the specific problems of spatially distributed models with spatially variable errors. These are threefold. The performance of a model may depend on spatial scale, e.g. with poor prediction of short-range variations, but good prediction at coarser scales. Second, the partition of modelled variation between spatial scales may be a more or less accurate reflection of reality. Third, model performance may be good in some places and poor elsewhere. Analysis of this variation in performance will help to identify aspects of the model which require development. In this project we will develop analytical methods for evaluating spatially dependent model error, with different mathematical assumptions and limitations. These will be applied to simulated data, and to a real modelling problem - the prediction of crop growth. The aim of this project is to develop methods for validating models of processes in space which recognises that model error is a spatial variable and so will depend on scale and will not necessarily be uniform in space. The specific objectives are therefore: 1. To develop methods for model validation that assess the conformity of model to data at different spatial scales 2. To develop methods for model validation that assess how well the model reproduces variability at different scales 3. To develop methods for model validation that assess how model performance varies in space 4. To assess these methods using simulated data and real data from a crop system.

Summary

unavailable

Committee	Closed Committee - Agri-food (AF)
Research Topics	X – not assigned to a current Research Topic
Research Priority	X – Research Priority information not available
Research Initiative	X - not in an Initiative
Funding Scheme	X – not Funded via a specific Funding Scheme

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