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FACCE Knowledge Hub: Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security (MACSUR): Tasks L3.2, T2.4 and C5.2

Reference	BB/K010301/1
Principal Investigator / Supervisor	Professor Ian Holman
Co-Investigators / Co-Supervisors	Mr Eric Audsley, Professor Tim Hess, Professor Jerry Knox, Professor Edward Weatherhead
Institution	Cranfield University
Department	Sch of Energy, Environment and Agrifood
Funding type	Research
Value (£)	60,306
Status	Completed
Type	Research Grant
Start date	03/12/2012
End date	02/12/2015
Duration	36 months

Abstract

FACCE MACSUR focuses on modelling European agriculture with climate change for food security. The work is organized in three themes on crop, livestock and trade modeling. The CropM sub-theme will advance crop modelling for improved assessment of climate change impacts on food security, with a work strategy that will stimulate excellent science and support capacity and network building including links to decision makers. The Livestock sub-theme will develop protocols for pasture and livestock model inter-comparison and will provide guidance in selecting models for particular environment/scale, developing guidelines for up-scaling site-based models to larger scales, and evaluating benefits of using model ensembles for assessing uncertainty range in decision-making for Europe. The TradeM sub-theme will promote the enhancement and deployment of economic models, a better integration of crop- and livestock production into them and more insights into adaptation and mitigation measures and strategies. The partnership consists of 73 partners from 16 countries all over Europe. The overarching challenge is to develop a pan-European capability in the development, use and interpretation of models to perform risk assessments of the impacts of climate change on European agriculture. To address this the following challenges must be met: 1. Identify and address a range of issues between models in different themes to enable their closer integration including issues of scale and data processing. 2. Train a new generation of scientists to work across models which contribute to greater integration of models. This challenge can be described as focusing on the creation of integrated modelers as opposed to integrated models. 3. Determine the contribution that can be made to reducing uncertainty over the impacts of climate change on European food security by adopting integrated models of crop production, animal production and trade.

Summary

FACCE MACSUR focuses on modelling European agriculture with climate change for food security. The work is organized in three themes on crop, livestock and trade modelling. The partnership consists of 73 partners from 16 countries all over Europe. The overarching challenge is to develop a pan-European capability in the development, use and interpretation of models to perform risk assessments of the impacts of climate change on European agriculture. To address this the following challenges must be met: 1. Identify and address a range of issues between models in different themes to enable their closer integration including issues of scale and data processing. 2. Train a new generation of scientists to work across models which contribute to greater integration of models. This challenge can be described as focusing on the creation of integrated modellers as opposed to integrated models. 3. Determine the contribution that can be made to reducing uncertainty over the impacts of climate change on European food security by adopting integrated models of crop production, animal production and trade.

Impact Summary

The project aims to improve our understanding of the uncertainties surrounding the ways in which European agriculture will adapt to and mitigate climate change. It is therefore of direct relevance to policy makers and the producers and users of food in the European Union. The project is very high profile and is certain to attract considerable interest from these communities as it progresses. In order to ensure that we able to meet this demand for information we will integrate dissemination within the project. A website is under development and it is intended that stakeholders will be involved in the major events of the project, beginning with the kick-off meeting and concluding with the final conference. Beyond Europe, it is expected that the activities of this project will also contribute to the parallel, global modelling efforts of the AgMIP consortium.

Committee	Research Committee B (Plants, microbes, food & sustainability)
Research Topics	Crop Science, Plant Science, Technology and Methods Development
Research Priority	X – Research Priority information not available
Research Initiative	Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security & Climate Change (FACCE JPI) [2012-2014]
Funding Scheme	X – not Funded via a specific Funding Scheme

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