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Towards a general method to 'scale up' process models in the arable landscape

Reference	BB/C506813/1
Principal Investigator / Supervisor	Professor Richard Lark
Co-Investigators / Co-Supervisors	Professor Guy Kirk
Institution	Rothamsted Research
Department	Computational & Systems Biology
Funding type	Research
Value (£)	301,550
Status	Completed
Type	Research Grant
Start date	29/03/2005
End date	28/04/2008
Duration	37 months

Abstract

Upscaling is a challenge if many available models of soil or other environmental processes are to be used to develop more sustainable agricultural systems. Some models, particularly of transport processes, are understood well at different scales and upscaling can sometimes be achieved analytically. This is not true for many other models. We propose a generic strategy to investigate the scaling behaviour of a modelled process. The general problems to be tackled are (i) the effects of non-linearity in the model on predictions of aggregated process outcomes form aggregated data and (ii) the identification of factors that have most effect on the process of interest at different spatial scales. We propose a nested sampling scheme, with model predictions and measurements of process outcomes and key variables made at each sample site. Analysis of these data will allow us to characterise the joint variability of all these variables at different spatial scales. From these analyses we will (i) identify those variables and parameters in which the model is actually or effectively linear at each spatial scale (ii) identify the key factors driving variation in the output variable at each spatial scale and so (iii) identify how the basic model may be adapted (e.g. by simplification) and applied (e.g. by latin hypercube sampling) at relevant spatial scales. Our case study will be the prediction of ammonia emissions from arable soils after urea application, to be conducted at within-field, within-farm and within-region (between-parent material) scales in mid Bedfordshire.

Summary

unavailable

Committee	Closed Committee - Agri-food (AF)
Research Topics	Soil Science, Technology and Methods Development
Research Priority	X – Research Priority information not available
Research Initiative	X - not in an Initiative
Funding Scheme	X – not Funded via a specific Funding Scheme

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